LESSONS FROM THE CAUCASUS''¦

27/11/2016



The Caucasus crisis is an important experience that laid out valuable outcomes for world politics. Above all, there are some facts among the “lessons to get from the Caucasus”. These facts can shed light upon the future of regional balances. The leading fact is; European centered policies might look attractive to other regions in the world. However, this attraction might not mean the same thing for everyone. Also the “mutual dependence” that came with globalization, intertwined interests and economic balances might not dissuade countries from their basic approaches. Another side effect of globalization; romanticism might be useful sometimes in manipulating the public and small countries. But not always! If a wrong step is taken on an issue –like Kosovo- it can certainly cast a shadow over other issues. Sanctions, isolation, and estrangement of relations might be effective only when the country in question is caught off-guard and considers these as a heavy price to pay. Sometimes the country you have made dependent on yourself or integrated into the system through powerful relations, might use this as an advantage against you instead of seeing it a weakness. Both in bilateral and multilateral relations the target country should be provided with the feeling of confidence, and be granted with freedom to move not to make it feel cornered. However effective global economy, rising values and some other trends might be, it cannot undermine the collective conscious and social genetics of societies. Sometimes the neighboring “small territory”, “under-populated” and “weak army” country, might cause big trouble for you with international support. If a country faces double standards, for example, if it is forced to be liberal and faces an illiberal approach, it might want to stay out of the game. Dominating the whole world is never possible. Sometimes a small country, even a loyal ally might lead you into a painful path. Especially during periods when globalization is powerful, “rhythmic disorder” and “uncertainty” might often appear in world politics. That is why, for many countries “waiting for the conditions to change” might be the right choice instead of “revising the policies”. In this age, all countries should have exit plans and crisis management centers to handle emergency evacuation, refugee flow on the borders, regional state of emergency, and even be in connection with other countries. After this crisis, UN Security Council might be insufficient to intervene and implement sanctions in the other crises to come. The political effectiveness and number of members of NATO should be increased. Meanwhile, both NATO and NATO-member countries might need to set up a new concept accounting traditional threats as well as new age ones. In the forthcoming period, all countries and international organizations might be forced to clear their views on potential crisis regions with ethnic controversies.
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